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Brief #42 · October 20, 2026

The Squeeze Moves to the Bid: Why 11.9% Input Costs Against 5.4% Bid Prices, and Steel Order Books Full Through Spring 2027, Make Now the Time to Buy Out a Houston Medical Project

The September Producer Price Index, released October 15, put inputs to new nonresidential construction up 11.9% in a year (AGC) — 11.2% on ABC's overall measure, the largest annual increase in nearly four years — with steel mill products up 28%, copper and brass mill shapes up 30%, and diesel up 115%, while the index for what contractors actually charge for new nonresidential buildings rose only 5.4%. Suppliers report order books full through spring 2027, so a funded Houston medical, dental, or veterinary owner should buy out the metals-heavy and long-lead packages first, require dated quotes with stated escalation terms, and treat an unusually low bid as a scope question before it is a savings.

Brief #41 · October 13, 2026

The Planning Pipeline Turns Institutional: Why a 9.4% Monthly Jump Makes This Fall the Time to Finish Design on a Houston Medical Buildout

Dodge's October 7 release put the Dodge Momentum Index at 288.0 (+2.4% on the month), with institutional planning up 9.4% and 17.2% year over year on a strong uptick in education, healthcare and government projects, while commercial planning slipped 1.3% and would be down 14.9% year over year without data centers. The projects now entering planning will reach buyout against materials prices running roughly 8% to 9% above last year, labor up 4% to 6%, and a Fed that just raised rates to 3.75%–4%, so a funded Houston medical, dental, or veterinary owner should use this fall to finish design and lock scope before that wave competes for the same crews.

Brief #40 · October 6, 2026

Most Jobs, Least Slack: Houston Added 14,100 Construction Workers While U.S. Healthcare Building Fell 5.4%

AGC's September 30 metro analysis found Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands added 14,100 construction jobs (+6%) from August 2025 to August 2026 — the most of any of 360 metros — while the Census Bureau's October 1 release put U.S. healthcare construction spending at $57.0 billion, down 5.4% from a year earlier. Construction hourly earnings are rising 4.3% a year against 3.3% for all private employers, and data centers are up 73%, so a Houston medical, dental, or veterinary owner is competing for crews, not for capital; the disciplined move is to commit named people and trade capacity early and price labor risk in the contract.

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